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Oblarg
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PostPosted: Fri Jul 10, 2020 12:19 pm 
 

darkeningday wrote:
Trump has a 91% chance of re-election, according to the most accurate election model. It also predicts he will expand his 2016 victory by dozens of electoral votes.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/worl ... 09236.html

Keep America Stupid


"Most accurate election model" is a stretch.

https://math.temple.edu/~paulos/oldsite/scam.html
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BastardHead
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PostPosted: Fri Jul 10, 2020 2:01 pm 
 

Oblarg wrote:
darkeningday wrote:
Trump has a 91% chance of re-election, according to the most accurate election model. It also predicts he will expand his 2016 victory by dozens of electoral votes.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/worl ... 09236.html

Keep America Stupid


"Most accurate election model" is a stretch.

https://math.temple.edu/~paulos/oldsite/scam.html


Not sure what a 31 year old article about stock index predictions has to do with a professor who started using his own pretty accurate model in 1996...

Either way, that model doesn't seem to take into account how everything has been going with the pandemic. I figured Trump had an easy victory ahead of him even if my preferred candidate went up against him, but I'm less sure nowadays. I still think he'll win just because Biden is so uninspiring, and I still think he could decide to nuke a major city in some cartoonish plan to stop COVID and his followers wouldn't waver on him, but if life really isn't back to something resembling normal by the time November rolls around then that might actually move the swing voters.

I think it's all gonna come down to whether or not the NFL starts up on time. That may sound crazy if you're not American but I guarantee that'll be the deciding factor. Quote me.
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Oblarg
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PostPosted: Fri Jul 10, 2020 2:35 pm 
 

BastardHead wrote:

Not sure what a 31 year old article about stock index predictions has to do with a professor who started using his own pretty accurate model in 1996...


The article is about fallacious statistical reasoning, not stock index predictions.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survivorship_bias

"This professor's pet model has been accurate for the past n elections" is something you should *always* view with intense skepticism.
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Unorthodox
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PostPosted: Fri Jul 10, 2020 2:50 pm 
 

Sorry to go all Nate Silver, but...

A lot of people don't seem to pay attention to polls simply because all the ones from 2016 showed Clinton edging ahead of Trump when she lost. The reality is though, is that the polls are pretty accurate, including this one. Clinton lost the electoral college and got the popular vote- about 4% more votes, to be exact. That generally trends right around where the polls saw her lead.

Biden has shown a far more steady lead against Trump than he had against Clinton with a far larger margin. Could he lose? Sure- but having Biden lose the electoral college while winning 8-10% more of the popular vote is a vastly trickier win for Trump than 2016.

Things could change though, Biden's margin could sink. But he's been the nominee for awhile now, and nothing has exactly changed.

BastardHead wrote:
but if life really isn't back to something resembling normal by the time November rolls around then that might actually move the swing voters.


I've said this a few times in here, but swing voters don't exist in large enough margins anymore to change election outcomes. You're either team red or team blue, and whoever is more energized to vote is going to win. I personally think hate energizes people more than anything, so the question is more whether Trump voters hate leftism more than the left hates Trump.
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BastardHead
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PostPosted: Fri Jul 10, 2020 2:52 pm 
 

Oblarg wrote:
BastardHead wrote:

Not sure what a 31 year old article about stock index predictions has to do with a professor who started using his own pretty accurate model in 1996...


The article is about fallacious statistical reasoning, not stock index predictions.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survivorship_bias

"This professor's pet model has been accurate for the past n elections" is something you should *always* view with intense skepticism.


Yeah, and in that same article it clarifies that it's been correct 6 of 7 times since he developed it, and when he took his methods and worked backwards it was correct for 25 of the previous 27. So yeah it's not perfect but he's got like 108 years of a good track record. I totally get that you should be skeptical of claims like that but that skepticism should probably include reading the article.
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Unorthodox
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PostPosted: Fri Jul 10, 2020 3:04 pm 
 

Keywords from that article has nothing to do with the guys overall credibility, it has to do with this:

Article wrote:
If the prediction is correct, former vice president Joe Biden is placed at a severe disadvantage due to losses in his party’s first two presidential nominating contests in Iowa and New Hampshire.


Are people uninterested in Joe Biden? Yes. But are lefties willing to vote for a pile of dog shit to get Trump out of office? Also yes.

So that models assumptions may not be up to snuff for this election.
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Oblarg
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PostPosted: Fri Jul 10, 2020 3:10 pm 
 

BastardHead wrote:
So yeah it's not perfect but he's got like 108 years of a good track record.


This statement suggests you lack the statistical literacy to judge one way or the other.

I read the entire article before responding, by the way (something you obviously didn't reciprocate, given your initial response).
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MeavyHetal
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 12, 2020 7:27 pm 
 

Betsy DeVos wants schools to fully reopen in the fall, and is backing Trump on taking away funding from schools that don't. Both of them need to be yeeted into the fucking sun :fuck:

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Slater922
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 12, 2020 7:33 pm 
 

MeavyHetal wrote:
Betsy DeVos wants schools to fully reopen in the fall, and is backing Trump on taking away funding from schools that don't. Both of them need to be yeeted into the fucking sun :fuck:

Actually, they should be yeeted into a black hole.
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~Guest 21181
The Great Fearmonger

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 13, 2020 10:30 pm 
 

https://apnews.com/07dc9cff9d42047cfcf28799112eb59d

This isn't quite the same as Wilson's proclamation of US neutrality in WWI, but...how does the internet say it these days..."it has the same energy."


EDIT: to clarify, it's fine to oppose things like building fake islands in international waters so you can pretend you have some claim to those waters, but I think we can all agree that what Pompeo et al are doing in this case goes well beyond that.

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darkeningday
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 14, 2020 12:38 am 
 

Shit, whatever happened to Greenland?
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~Guest 361478
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 14, 2020 2:33 pm 
 

Earthcubed wrote:
https://apnews.com/07dc9cff9d42047cfcf28799112eb59d

This isn't quite the same as Wilson's proclamation of US neutrality in WWI, but...how does the internet say it these days..."it has the same energy."


EDIT: to clarify, it's fine to oppose things like building fake islands in international waters so you can pretend you have some claim to those waters, but I think we can all agree that what Pompeo et al are doing in this case goes well beyond that.


My government is also sending one of our new carriers, some destroyers, and.. well, no aircraft because Boeing haven't finished smoking the money meant to procure them :lol:

One way the US deployments do have a value is that it lets the locals, being bullied by China, know that they're not being totally ignored (Hi, Taiwan !) - I mean, I don't see a UN fleet being organised to slap the knuckles of the Chinese, and probably won't in my lifetime.

Mike & Donald are absolutely just dick-swinging, but stopped clocks & all that.

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~Guest 454771
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 14, 2020 9:14 pm 
 

Oblarg wrote:
BastardHead wrote:

Not sure what a 31 year old article about stock index predictions has to do with a professor who started using his own pretty accurate model in 1996...


The article is about fallacious statistical reasoning, not stock index predictions.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survivorship_bias

"This professor's pet model has been accurate for the past n elections" is something you should *always* view with intense skepticism.

How hard is it to come up with answers that you already know? There's a great Shel Silverstein poem about the amazing all-knowing seer who can perfectly predict the past. :D

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~Guest 21181
The Great Fearmonger

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PostPosted: Wed Jul 15, 2020 10:15 am 
 

Methuen wrote:
Earthcubed wrote:
https://apnews.com/07dc9cff9d42047cfcf28799112eb59d

This isn't quite the same as Wilson's proclamation of US neutrality in WWI, but...how does the internet say it these days..."it has the same energy."


EDIT: to clarify, it's fine to oppose things like building fake islands in international waters so you can pretend you have some claim to those waters, but I think we can all agree that what Pompeo et al are doing in this case goes well beyond that.


One way the US deployments do have a value is that it lets the locals, being bullied by China, know that they're not being totally ignored (Hi, Taiwan !) -


A lot more people would be comfortable with this if it wasn't obviously disconnected from any strategy, especially in the context of bromantic personal diplomacy between adversarial states. Which is broadly true of much of the Trump administration. See, for example: the nuclear summits with Kim.

As it is, we should dread any scenario where this administration might bumble itself into a military conflict, even one that might seem facially justifiable. He has so thoroughly burned bridges among our allies that it's an open question whether many would come to our aid even if we were unambiguously attacked without provocation. Imagine what would happen in the event of a conflict arising (whether in whole or in part) from nonessential, discretionary escalation on our part.

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hakarl
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 15, 2020 11:07 am 
 

Luckily, that coincides with a UK freshly out of EU and desperate for allies.
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~Guest 361478
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 15, 2020 12:27 pm 
 

Ilwhyan wrote:
Luckily, that coincides with a UK freshly out of EU and desperate for allies.


We're still waiting for Boeing and Airbus to finish the aircraft we paid for (and continue to pay for) - the new carriers are very nice, but really just pretty at this stage, couldn't join in if we wanted to :lol:

It's made the mainstream press that she (and her sister) are really not much more than a foil to make the US think that Britain is still in the game - she's not big enough for a proper fighter wing, doesn't have the manpower to serve as a proper battle group command ship, and is pathetically under-armed vs. hypersonic missiles and the like. The UK would have been better off with four or five smaller ships to go off fighting slavers, drug runners, pirates - they don't look as pretty on the combined ops order of battle, though !

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~Guest 21181
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 15, 2020 2:18 pm 
 

Methuen wrote:
pathetically under-armed vs. hypersonic missiles and the like.


Well to be fair this is pretty much true of everyone right now, assuming you mean glide vehicles and/or scramjets.


PS thank you for not using the term "hypersonics"

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droneriot
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 16, 2020 3:52 pm 
 

Ilwhyan wrote:
Luckily, that coincides with a UK freshly out of EU and desperate for allies.

Not desperate for allies at all. State 51 exiting the EU was ordered by their government in Washington.
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matras
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PostPosted: Fri Jul 17, 2020 1:36 am 
 

Couldn't really decide which thread to ask this in; this or the George Floyd/BLM one.

So I've read about and seen unidentifiable personnel in combat gear and fatigues just yanking people off the streets of Portland, without answering any questions of who they are and refusing to identify themselves, and driving away in unmarked rental cars. Is this the "federal response" your president talked about?

To me, it feels sketchy and scary as fuck.

Edit, update: Yeah apparently it's the DHS. According to sources both the mayor and governor have been declined a meeting with the DHS, which to me sounds like a federal invasion.

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Sedition and Pockets
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PostPosted: Fri Jul 17, 2020 8:20 am 
 

https://www.opb.org/news/article/federa ... CrjwOILj3U

Just to provide confirmation of and context for what matras is talking about. This is real. It is the face of reaction. It is a reminder that this system cannot be reformed, that it is beyond reform.
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~Guest 21181
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PostPosted: Fri Jul 17, 2020 8:40 am 
 

matras wrote:
Couldn't really decide which thread to ask this in; this or the George Floyd/BLM one.

So I've read about and seen unidentifiable personnel in combat gear and fatigues just yanking people off the streets of Portland, without answering any questions of who they are and refusing to identify themselves, and driving away in unmarked rental cars. Is this the "federal response" your president talked about?

To me, it feels sketchy and scary as fuck.

Edit, update: Yeah apparently it's the DHS. According to sources both the mayor and governor have been declined a meeting with the DHS, which to me sounds like a federal invasion.



What this looks like in practice: https://twitter.com/sparrowmedia/status ... 1307218948. Essentially indistinguishable from something like what SAVAK or the KGB Second Chief Directorate used to do.

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~Guest 361478
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PostPosted: Fri Jul 17, 2020 9:13 am 
 

Earthcubed wrote:
matras wrote:
Couldn't really decide which thread to ask this in; this or the George Floyd/BLM one.

So I've read about and seen unidentifiable personnel in combat gear and fatigues just yanking people off the streets of Portland, without answering any questions of who they are and refusing to identify themselves, and driving away in unmarked rental cars. Is this the "federal response" your president talked about?

To me, it feels sketchy and scary as fuck.

Edit, update: Yeah apparently it's the DHS. According to sources both the mayor and governor have been declined a meeting with the DHS, which to me sounds like a federal invasion.



What this looks like in practice: https://twitter.com/sparrowmedia/status ... 1307218948. Essentially indistinguishable from something like what SAVAK or the KGB Second Chief Directorate used to do.


That is absolutely crazy - "We don't like how the locals are handling things, and we've now decided that we admire the Gipper, so here's the goon squad, Oh, and they're not wearing identification, and dress like any other tacticool nutter on the streets. This can't cause problems at all, oh no."

Fascinating to see difference in reporting too - Newsweek cite the local authorities not wanting this to happen, and call out that it's a political stunt from Donald & co ahead of the elections, trying to look like big tough Law & Order types.

https://www.newsweek.com/trump-accused-deploying-secret-police-portland-political-stunt-1518595

Al Jazeera meanwhile describe the situation as 'policing and protecting' in those areas, with the only dissent being framed as from civil rights groups (never sells well in the middle east)

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/07/federal-forces-cities-police-protect-monuments-200710174206593.html

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SuperVeji4
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PostPosted: Fri Jul 17, 2020 9:41 am 
 

Sedition and Pockets wrote:
https://www.opb.org/news/article/federal-law-enforcement-unmarked-vehicles-portland-protesters/?fbclid=IwAR2WlEYEpXEefYrcxfI_EgWN3Stkd8EW5J_rJaAAqbGTTJXHpCrjwOILj3U

Just to provide confirmation of and context for what matras is talking about. This is real. It is the face of reaction. It is a reminder that this system cannot be reformed, that it is beyond reform.

Of course. Let's reform into a Communist state, because that kind of thing never happened in any Communist regime.
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~Guest 361478
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 20, 2020 3:23 pm 
 

More fun from the land of the free - weaponising those doorbell cameras to scan car numberplates :)

'They' (some alphabet agency) then buy the data from Ring :)

https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2020/07/cbp-does-end-run-around-warrants-simply-buys-license-plate-reader-data/

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droneriot
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 20, 2020 4:26 pm 
 

The Donald is already threatening to send the Janjaweed into a lot more US cities, including Chicago which he says is "worse than Afghanistan."
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Sedition and Pockets
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 20, 2020 4:59 pm 
 

If y'all ever wonder why I seem unreasonably angry...

https://www.lgbtqnation.com/2020/07/tru ... -69Htontbg
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Luvers
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 20, 2020 5:23 pm 
 

Sedition and Pockets wrote:
If y'all ever wonder why I seem unreasonably angry...

https://www.lgbtqnation.com/2020/07/tru ... -69Htontbg
Yet one more human rights violation by the Drumpf administration that his zealots will ignore. Reminds me of...

"...He's a deeply religious man and a member of the conservative party. He is single minded and has no regard for political process. The more power he obtains the more obvious his zealotry and the more aggressive his supporters become."


Quote:
Ben Carson has said the Equal Access Rule allows “big, hairy men” to “impede the rights of” women who are “not comfortable with the idea of being in a shelter, being in a shower, with somebody who had very different anatomy.” He has also used “Biblical principles” to attack the protections for transgender people and said that LGBTQ anti-discrimination measures are “special rights.”


Biblical Principles? I would be interested to know which Bible verse details something that has only been a part of the public consciousness for about a century or so, while also not even knowing where the sun went at night. I really wish these people would quote actual verses, but of course they will not.


What an absolute disgrace and I do not consider you unreasonably angry. There certainly is a valid reason to be upset. Is there anything that can be done to prevent this?
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droneriot
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 20, 2020 5:29 pm 
 

Can't recall on the spot what passage that was that talked about big hairy men. "And the big hairy men went forth to the shower and claimed to be women, and frightened the women in the shower, and Jesus said one day a man shall come forth, a saviour to all women, who would punish all big hairy men for frightening the women, and Jesus said that man shall be known as the Donald." -The Book of Ben Carson reading the Bible on LSD, Chapter 4, Paragraph 14
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~Guest 361478
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 20, 2020 5:35 pm 
 

Luvers wrote:
Quote:
Ben Carson has said the Equal Access Rule allows “big, hairy men” to “impede the rights of” women who are “not comfortable with the idea of being in a shelter, being in a shower, with somebody who had very different anatomy.” He has also used “Biblical principles” to attack the protections for transgender people and said that LGBTQ anti-discrimination measures are “special rights.”


They never can. Seventh Day Adventists are especially nutty, and use a lot of bad translations to support their nuttiness. Interestingly, the last revision of the Catechism of the Catholic Church very clearly lays out that being a bigot is Not OK, and explicitly that gay people are to be treated as anyone else. So do the (written, published) exhortations from the Pope. It's right their in the Catholic's own rule book (which I'm happy to photograph if there's any doubt), and right there from their boss - how American Catholics can support Donald and keep a straight face at mass is beyond me. Nasty hypocrites all.

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Sedition and Pockets
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 20, 2020 5:42 pm 
 

The Catholic Church has been pretty explicit in its attacks on transgender rights and identities.
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droneriot
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 20, 2020 5:43 pm 
 

It's entirely anecdotal, I know, and I'm sure there are some scary counterexamples out there, but I spent two years working at a place that didn't have gender seperated restrooms and just one restroom for all employees, and no woman was ever scared to death by a man entering the restroom and no man ever decided he wants to be a rapist because a woman is taking a shit, everyone was just fine doing their bodily functions. The whole toilet issue thing for me is a thing rooted in deeply ingrained sexism from both sexes, as if someone from the opposite sex shitting next to you will ruin the quality of your shitting. Like I said there's probably plenty of examples of toilet rape or peeping or sexual abuse of any kind, but for sexual violence it's not just that the perp is to blame and not the victim, many people understand that by now, but also that the perp is to blame and not the location. Blaming the location is as dumb as blaming the victim. For the non-psycho population that uses toilets to pee or to shit it's just not a valid example to bring up to justify psychotic obsessions about toilet segregation.
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Luvers
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 20, 2020 5:51 pm 
 

Methuen wrote:
They never can. Seventh Day Adventists are especially nutty, and use a lot of bad translations to support their nuttiness.
All religions are especially nutty. The very idea at their core is to ignore evidence in order to prop up their discrimination.
Methuen wrote:
Interestingly, the last revision of the Catechism of the Catholic Church very clearly lays out that being a bigot is Not OK, and explicitly that gay people are to be treated as anyone else. So do the (written, published) exhortations from the Pope. It's right their in the Catholic's own rule book (which I'm happy to photograph if there's any doubt), and right there from their boss
I am aware of what the Catechism states, as I was raised a Catholic. Of course they can write all they want about homosexuals but they still place their beliefs, and therefore actions, upon a text that contains:

Leviticus 18:22: "You shall not lie with a male as with a woman; it is an abomination."
Leviticus 20:13: "If a man lies with a male as with a woman, both of them have committed an abomination; they shall surely be put to death; their blood is upon them."

Of course it is easy to see why this book, written ENTIRELY by evil men in power would find a way to demonize gay sex for males but nary a word is written about lesbian sex. Self-Interest!
Methuen wrote:
how American Catholics can support Donald and keep a straight face at mass is beyond me. Nasty hypocrites all.
Actually it should not be beyond you at all. When examining all Abrahamic religions, it is impossible to find a denomination worse than Catholicism. Practically every rule they make, the very core of their existence, is to infringe upon the rights of others. Everything that looks good, tastes good, smells good, sounds good, feels good needs to be restricted.

"Everything is the devil to you, mama!"
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Sedition and Pockets
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 20, 2020 5:57 pm 
 

Luvers wrote:
What an absolute disgrace and I do not consider you unreasonably angry. There certainly is a valid reason to be upset. Is there anything that can be done to prevent this?


In the short term? Speak out for us. Advocate for us. Hold space for us. Don't let the oppression and violence visited against us pass in silence. Amplify our voices. Show out with us when we take to the streets. Hold the feet of center-left politicians to the fire when they try to sell us out. Deplatform the bigots. Love and defend trans people when they come into your life.

For the long run? Read Marx, Engels, Lenin, Mao, Harry Haywood, Fidel, Sankara, Leslie Feinberg etc. Develop your dialectics. Join a revolutionary party. Build the consciousness and solidarity of the masses. Undermine the state. Help make a revolution and sweep the whole rotten edifice of this sick society into the dustbin of history.
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droneriot
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 20, 2020 6:01 pm 
 

Yeah don't do the latter part and don't develop your dianetics and spare yourself the excessive use of the n-word and antisemitic slurs by Marx and Engels. However do the former and fully support and speak out for everybody who just wants to live their lives in peace and free of persecution.
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 20, 2020 6:14 pm 
 

droneriot wrote:
Yeah don't do the latter part and don't develop your dianetics and spare yourself the excessive use of the n-word and antisemitic slurs by Marx and Engels.
What N word? Neighbor? Nickel?
droneriot wrote:
However do the former and fully support and speak out for everybody who just wants to live their lives in peace and free of persecution.
I do that already. I was asking if she knew if there was anything legal to be done.
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darkeningday
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 20, 2020 6:15 pm 
 

Erm wasn't Marx Jewish?
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droneriot
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 20, 2020 6:17 pm 
 

Well as a European outsider with limited understanding of the American system I think that every American policy can be held up in court as soon as the first legal decision is made based on that law, so my non-American lay man's idea would be that the first time you encounter an anti-trans law being applied against somebody you'd file a suit against it.

darkeningday wrote:
Erm wasn't Marx Jewish?

That's what the Nazis claimed, but he was actually an antisemite.

"Which is the worldly reason for Judaism? The practical need, the self-need. What is the worldly cult of the Jew? The greed. What is his worldly God? The money. [...] Judaism is a general omnipresent antisocial element. [...] In the Jewish religion lies the despise of theory, of art, of history, of man as a purpose to himself. [...] Even the own wife would be sold."
-Karl Marx, "On the Jewish Question"
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Sedition and Pockets
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 20, 2020 6:54 pm 
 

Marx was an ethnic Jew, though his family were, I believe, Lutheran converts. He was also unquestionably an anti-semite, albeit his anti-Semitism, like that of a lot of non-religious Jews of his time, was aimed chiefly at the Rabbinical tradition of Orthodox Judaism. This was at least understandable given the backward and repressive nature of the Orthodox community in his lifetime, as well as the extremely violent anti-semitism of the surrounding cultural milieu and the need to protect himself from it. Nonetheless, it is important to read him with awareness of and a critical eye toward those failings, though Marxists have always recognized that it isn't the righteousness of the man, but the demonstrable correctness of his theory and methodology that matters.
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droneriot
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 20, 2020 6:56 pm 
 

That reads so cringe that it feels like even you yourself had to force yourself to write it under severe physical pain.
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Sedition and Pockets
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 20, 2020 7:17 pm 
 

I have no issue whatsoever with pointing out that Marx, Engels, Lenin, Mao etc. were not saints or angels, but human beings like any others. Capable of errors, even gross, catastrophic errors with horrific human consequences. Unlike the idealist philosophies that underlie liberalism (the guiding belief system of modern capitalism in its non-fascistic incarnations, though fascism, too, is entirely idealistic in its formulation), Marxism has no need of saints. It doesn't rely on the enlightenment or moral superiority of its theorists and practitioners; it relies on the science of dialectical materialism. Marxism doesn't posit an abstract ideal and seek to impose it on the world; it describes the world as it exists, the forces that forged that existence, and the implications of the further development of those forces under real material conditions. In the end, it doesn't matter whether Karl Marx was a good man or a piece of shit; the philosophy he developed is inherently self-correcting.
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