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darkeningday
xXdArKenIngDayXx

Joined: Mon Aug 23, 2004 1:20 pm
Posts: 4853
Location: United States
PostPosted: Wed Nov 06, 2019 12:00 pm 
 

So Omar called out the Armenian genocide (explicitly calling it that) and put it alongside the Jews in the Holocaust, Rwanda, Bosnia and Native Americans in her speech for the Bernie Sanders rally in Minnesota on Sunday.

I'm now revising my statement to say that I take her at her word on her vote, which I probably should've done to begin with. Everyone else should too. Only Rezzy had it right from the start.
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ambientsorrow wrote:
Pretty rubbish, I must say. Certainly not worth the hype behind it. Boring and predictable. A band for 14-22 year olds.

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Subrick
Metal freak

Joined: Sun Sep 12, 2010 7:27 pm
Posts: 8222
Location: United States
PostPosted: Wed Nov 06, 2019 3:54 pm 
 

At the end of the day, that ultimately, unfortunately, won't matter. Her future political opponents will completely ignore her clarification and continue to trumpet that she didn't vote "yes" the first time, and you just KNOW that the Republican hate machine will even say that she voted "no" there, even though a simple Google search reveals otherwise.

Not voting "yes" when she had the chance fucked her.
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Earthcubed wrote:
I'm just perpetually annoyed by Sean William Scott and he's never been in a movie where I wasn't rooting for his head to sever by strange means.

Blacksoul Seraphim Gothic Doom Metal
Autumn's Ashes Melodic Death/Doom Metal

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Xlxlx
Argentinian Asado Supremacy

Joined: Sat Dec 24, 2011 2:16 pm
Posts: 7977
Location: Argentina
PostPosted: Wed Nov 06, 2019 5:35 pm 
 

Let's also not forget the idiotic purity tests Democrats subject their own people to. Fuck up once, you're branded for life as a fake progressive.
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droneriot wrote:
The instruments used are what you would expect from the little metal people: guitaloos, bassnaps, drumdrums, and voclatrons. The best things about the guitaloos are obviously the riffraffs.

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Subrick
Metal freak

Joined: Sun Sep 12, 2010 7:27 pm
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Location: United States
PostPosted: Thu Nov 07, 2019 2:01 am 
 

I saw people on Facebook decrying Elizabeth fucking Warren as a corporate stooge. Sometimes even the far left is just stupid as fuck.
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Earthcubed wrote:
I'm just perpetually annoyed by Sean William Scott and he's never been in a movie where I wasn't rooting for his head to sever by strange means.

Blacksoul Seraphim Gothic Doom Metal
Autumn's Ashes Melodic Death/Doom Metal

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darkeningday
xXdArKenIngDayXx

Joined: Mon Aug 23, 2004 1:20 pm
Posts: 4853
Location: United States
PostPosted: Thu Nov 07, 2019 3:23 am 
 

Subrick wrote:
I saw people on Facebook decrying Elizabeth fucking Warren as a corporate stooge. Sometimes even the far left is just stupid as fuck.

She's not a "stooge" but she is the one corporate America has decided is much more acceptable to their interests than Sanders. Furthermore her foreign policy and voting record on it is abysmal (virtually indistinguishable from Biden/Obama's), and her Medicare For All proposal, while decent, is highly problematic for a number of reasons. As far as electoralism goes, Hillary lost the presidency because she failed to garner votes from enough non-white people; 71% of Warren supporters are white and for Sanders, that number is 49%. On a populist side, do you really think she's the one to "take on Trump?" The one who immediately published her 23 & Me (which btw is speculative race science bullshit) that showed she was about as Native American as every other white person in America? Not to even mention "Pow Wow Chow" and potentially using her status as a minority to juice her job speculation (admittedly, when she was a hardcore Republican).

Remember, you've got one candidate to support in the Primary. One. Obviously she's the runner up, no one else comes even close to her solid second place. But for now I see no reason to support Warren over Sanders.

Of course this doesn't mean she deserves any derision, and the misogyny underpinning much of those attacks (as it was with Hillary in 2016) need to be loaded into a canon and fired into the sun.
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ambientsorrow wrote:
Pretty rubbish, I must say. Certainly not worth the hype behind it. Boring and predictable. A band for 14-22 year olds.

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insanewayne253
Mallcore Kid

Joined: Tue Mar 29, 2016 4:04 am
Posts: 9
Location: United States
PostPosted: Thu Nov 07, 2019 4:37 am 
 

Two things I've been observing since this past Tuesday's off-year elections..

1: The suburban vote is shifting very blue, they're college educated and turning away from Trumpism. The downside is they're not as lefty in the ideological spectrum. Wouldn't surprise me if they try and go with a Buttigeg, but with Warren her plans could work but she needs to sell them in bite sized and quick statements. No wonky long winded policy stuff. Get to the point of it and move on, stay on message.

2: The black vote is going to be crucial. So far they're still supporting Biden because he was Obama's number 2; hence why Biden has such a commanding lead in the South Carolina primary. They do see Warren as an alternative but again, she's going to have to work for it. Same with Sanders if he's looking to make major inroads with that voting block. Possibly picking a running mate they could get behind. Some are still saying Stacy Abrams, I still don't think so since she hasn't accomplished anything asides losing (barely) a gubernatorial run in Georgia. One of the (many) reasons Hillary lost was because the black vote didn't come out like they did for Obama, so you need a candidate or a full ticket that gets them excited.

I like Sanders personally, but I'm going to be realistic and I just want someone who can soundly beat and get rid of Trump and get things back to some kind of normalcy without any daily drama, scandal, tweet bullshit. Can you imagine if he's reelected; it's going to be four years of nothing but revenge against his enemies. That's a nightmare scenario I and I think several others don't want to happen.

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Earthcubed
The Great Fearmonger

Joined: Sun Nov 07, 2004 3:44 am
Posts: 3765
Location: eccaira nare epë Anar
PostPosted: Thu Nov 07, 2019 7:51 am 
 

insanewayne253 wrote:
Can you imagine if he's reelected; it's going to be four years of nothing but revenge against his enemies. That's a nightmare scenario I and I think several others don't want to happen.


Unfortunately, I don't think enough dems (and particularly lefty dems and irregular voters) think this way. Hence all the "candidates need to motivate me or I won't vote, waaahhh" whining or the occasional "Biden would be worse than Trump" delusions. The thought of 4 more years of Trump and Trumpism should be all the motivation you need, and there are no viable dem candidates who would do the kinds of irreparable harm Trump will continue to do if reelected.

Complaining that nobody is left enough or exciting enough to motivate you in 2020 reflects either extreme privilege or a profound, insular ignorance about the world burning around you.
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iamntbatman wrote:
On Friday I passed an important milestone in my teaching career: a student shat himself

FloristOfVampyrism wrote:
That wasn't meant as a k.o. though, he specifically targeted an area of the cerebellum which, if ruptured, renders you a Jehovah's witness indefinitely

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darkeningday
xXdArKenIngDayXx

Joined: Mon Aug 23, 2004 1:20 pm
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Location: United States
PostPosted: Thu Nov 07, 2019 8:15 am 
 

The Left. Will vote. Against. Trump. Ignore the "yikes, voting Trump over BIDEN rah rah." Concentration camps, meh, drone war expansion, meh, mass shootings against worshipers across the world giving Trump props, meh, promising to privatize what little is left of the social stately net, whatever... HE TOOK AWAY OUR JUUL PODS. It's fucking on.

That said, I do think the argument that the economy crashing with someone like Biden or Buttchug or even Warren at the wheel could actually lead to a worse future than 4 more years of Trump helming an economic recession has merit.
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ambientsorrow wrote:
Pretty rubbish, I must say. Certainly not worth the hype behind it. Boring and predictable. A band for 14-22 year olds.

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insanewayne253
Mallcore Kid

Joined: Tue Mar 29, 2016 4:04 am
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Location: United States
PostPosted: Thu Nov 07, 2019 8:43 am 
 

The recession is already going to happen in 2020. Again China will hunker down and wait this out. There’s the potential effect Brexit has on the world market. US manufacturing is already in recession and the rest will catch up in the coming months. Moreover, the economy has been slower in comparison to 2018, GDP growth only 1.9% in Q3. And let’s not forget markets in Europe are slowing down. It’s going to be a bumpy ride. I hate to say it but let’s just have the recession now and get it over with. We’ve had 10 years of growth. All good things come to an end. Trump will of course find something to blame it on but I don’t think people will be buying it.

Oh yeah there’s the dark horse of Trump holding the government hostage with the looming threat of a third shutdown. He’s going to scream about ending the impeachment inquiry. That could spur some major economic slowdown.

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darkeningday
xXdArKenIngDayXx

Joined: Mon Aug 23, 2004 1:20 pm
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Location: United States
PostPosted: Thu Nov 07, 2019 5:09 pm 
 

If the economy craters before the election, Trump's toast. Though he'll jam an EpiPen into it via another big tax cut before November to try to stave it off, mark my words.
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ambientsorrow wrote:
Pretty rubbish, I must say. Certainly not worth the hype behind it. Boring and predictable. A band for 14-22 year olds.

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droneriot
incelgender

Joined: Sat Aug 28, 2004 1:17 pm
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Location: Spahn Ranch
PostPosted: Thu Nov 07, 2019 5:35 pm 
 

insanewayne253 wrote:
Again China will hunker down and wait this out.

Well he basically handed them his balls and told them to have him by them. Xi obviously doesn't need to worry about his re-election, the worst that can happen if his economy dips is that there'll be a few protests he'll have to shoot down. Trump on the other hand is measured entirely by the US economy because everybody even on the Republican side knows he sucks at everything else but on said Republican side they're still holding on to the "he's good for the economy"-story.
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insanewayne253
Mallcore Kid

Joined: Tue Mar 29, 2016 4:04 am
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 07, 2019 7:02 pm 
 

Even then Trump isn’t good on the economy. The only thing he did is give the economy is sugar high after those tax cuts. Businesses didn’t invest in their workers, they bought back stocks. They’re treating Wall Street like a get rich quick scheme. Worst yet the stock market reacts pretty much to everything Trump says like today’s news of a possible rollback of some tariffs; there’s his shitty plan to keep the economy ginned up but it won’t necessarily work as global markets are slowing.

On a side note Michael Bloomberg just announced his bid. Are rich assholes looking to simply buy the election? Hel, just last Tuesday Amazon pretty much bought out the entire Seattle City Council by propping up more business friendly council members replacing member that are actually fighting for people. They won’t help to try and curb the homelessness problem, they’ll just sweep it under the rug. Some friends of mine are actually saying they could be enthused by a Bloomberg run. I can sort of see that since they’re suburban/ex-urban more moderate that moved away from Trump; however, I think this helps both Warren and Sanders by giving them a foil.

Why do I smell a possible brokered convention. We’re all going to have to find a consensus candidate if that happens.

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droneriot
incelgender

Joined: Sat Aug 28, 2004 1:17 pm
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Location: Spahn Ranch
PostPosted: Mon Nov 11, 2019 7:23 am 
 

That Nikki Haley vs Kelly & Tillerson story reminds me a lot of that House of Saddam docu-drama I've watched once. Amazing what the White House has come to.
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Resident_Hazard
Possessed by Starscream's Ghost

Joined: Thu Oct 07, 2004 2:33 pm
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Location: United States
PostPosted: Tue Nov 12, 2019 11:27 am 
 

Xlxlx wrote:
Let's also not forget the idiotic purity tests Democrats subject their own people to. Fuck up once, you're branded for life as a fake progressive.


Obama called out far-left progressives for being "too woke" for their own good. I think he makes a good point about, essentially, black and white thinking. That some on the left are holding unrealistic standards that risk keeping monsters like Trump in power.

A snippet from the article:

Quote:
Speaking Tuesday at an Obama Foundation summit in Chicago, Obama said that he worries that some in the Democratic Party's left flank are too worried about ideological "purity" among their fellow Democrats.

"This idea of purity, and you're never compromised, and you're always politically woke, and all that stuff, you should get over that quickly," Obama said. "The world is messy. There are ambiguities. People who do really good stuff have flaws."
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Unorthodox
Metalhead

Joined: Sun Mar 05, 2006 8:08 pm
Posts: 1362
PostPosted: Tue Nov 12, 2019 4:09 pm 
 

insanewayne253 wrote:
The recession is already going to happen in 2020. Again China will hunker down and wait this out. There’s the potential effect Brexit has on the world market. US manufacturing is already in recession and the rest will catch up in the coming months. Moreover, the economy has been slower in comparison to 2018, GDP growth only 1.9% in Q3. And let’s not forget markets in Europe are slowing down. It’s going to be a bumpy ride. I hate to say it but let’s just have the recession now and get it over with. We’ve had 10 years of growth. All good things come to an end. Trump will of course find something to blame it on but I don’t think people will be buying it.


I think there's very little indication that there will be a recession in 2020 unless there's some black swan moment. Even if there is a recession, the chances of it being as bad as what we went through 10 years ago is really low. Nevertheless, I do think we're going into a sluggish economy. There was a great article about the economy posted to Linkedin a last week that goes into how monetary policy has created a large amount of money in the financial sector that hasn't left the financial sector. Basically, because of QE/low interest rates, anyone who is creditworthy has been able to invest in either their own company or another company. This helped grow our GDP back to normal levels, but as the PBS article says, it's led to a lot of corporate debt. Corporations have used this debt to grow, but as the low interest rates have continued many investors have given their money to companies that have little chance in creating a return. Look at the wave of IPOs from names like Uber, or Lyft, or AirBNB (still awaiting its IPO), or WeWork (which failed) which (as Ray Dalio says in the Linkedin Article) sell "hopes and dreams" and not "earnings" (Uber, for example, lost 1 billion in Q3). This is what happens when there is too much money in the financial system. Earnings growth from businesses have, on average, leveled out, so all investors are left to do is pump money into corporations with little sight of returns. Beyond the bullshit "hopes and dreams" schemes out there, stock prices are exorbitantly expensive and have been for a very long time now. Fear and uncertainty of the market could create periodic market "hiccups" (aka, mini crashes) like we saw a year ago in December 2018 (look up NASDAQ/S&P around this time), but because there's nowhere else for investors/companies to put their money, the market will simply be propped up again.

darkeningday wrote:
That said, I do think the argument that the economy crashing with someone like Biden or Buttchug or even Warren at the wheel could actually lead to a worse future than 4 more years of Trump helming an economic recession has merit.


This is basically part 2 of what I previously wrote in this post, and wildly speculative. If the left wins, there will be a market crash (probably not a giant one like in 2008, but bigger than we've seen recently), and a slowdown of economic activity. A lot of money that was spent today on investment will be spent tomorrow on redistribution schemes (which, as you would know if you've read my older posts in this thread, I'm 100% behind). If the left passes wealth taxes/medicare for all/student loan forgiveness/etc, it will be paid for by this former investment money. Eventually, this would create increased purchasing power for the average person, which will generally increase spending. However, because increased spending with low interest rates creates inflation, the central bank will have no choice but to raise interest rates. This will then create a massive downturn in the economy as many corporations that have leveraged themselves long will go belly up. However, many businesses will be able to weather the storm, and have increased earnings due to increased consumer spending, which will eventually be the "cooling" of a heated downturn. In layman's terms, the economy will shift from what it is now, a supply-side driven economy, to a more balanced, demand-driven economy.

But I could be wrong and we could all just die in a war versus china.
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Earthcubed
The Great Fearmonger

Joined: Sun Nov 07, 2004 3:44 am
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 12, 2019 8:52 pm 
 

I don't want whatever it is you guys are smoking that gives you the impression Biden or Buttigieg would be less steady at the helm of an economic collapse than Trump. There are much worse things that can happen than "damn, a centrist/incrementalist Dem is president, now we won't be able to get rid of private health insurance for 40 years instead of 35 years."
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iamntbatman wrote:
On Friday I passed an important milestone in my teaching career: a student shat himself

FloristOfVampyrism wrote:
That wasn't meant as a k.o. though, he specifically targeted an area of the cerebellum which, if ruptured, renders you a Jehovah's witness indefinitely

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darkeningday
xXdArKenIngDayXx

Joined: Mon Aug 23, 2004 1:20 pm
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Location: United States
PostPosted: Tue Nov 12, 2019 9:50 pm 
 

You're kidding yourself if you don't think all of the Democrats and the entire left will be blamed for an economic collapse under a Neoliberal president, especially considering they'll just pull an Obama and bail out the banks and devastate the working class again, and it will be way way worse than 2008. Expect a Charlottesville in every majority white city in the country if that happens.

But I'm still voting blue no matter the circumstance, even if it's just a somehow shittier reboot of 2016.
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ambientsorrow wrote:
Pretty rubbish, I must say. Certainly not worth the hype behind it. Boring and predictable. A band for 14-22 year olds.

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Earthcubed
The Great Fearmonger

Joined: Sun Nov 07, 2004 3:44 am
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Location: eccaira nare epë Anar
PostPosted: Tue Nov 12, 2019 10:06 pm 
 

We're talking about two different things. I'm not talking about who gets blamed, I'm talking about who is actually doing the business of running a government during an economic collapse. There is no universe in which Trump doing that leads to better outcomes than any of the Dems currently running.

Also: Obama supported the bank bailouts as a senator; TARP was signed into law before he was president. Congress would have had to pass a separate law to rescind TARP after he took office.
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iamntbatman wrote:
On Friday I passed an important milestone in my teaching career: a student shat himself

FloristOfVampyrism wrote:
That wasn't meant as a k.o. though, he specifically targeted an area of the cerebellum which, if ruptured, renders you a Jehovah's witness indefinitely

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darkeningday
xXdArKenIngDayXx

Joined: Mon Aug 23, 2004 1:20 pm
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Location: United States
PostPosted: Wed Nov 13, 2019 2:28 am 
 

Literally anyone (left OR right) would handle the economy better than Trump. Literally (although the way you feel about Tulsi is the way I feel about Tom Cotten and Josh Hawley, whose hawkishness scares the shit out of me). But we live in a semi-democracy, at least for now. If 8 years of Obama gave us Trump, what's 4 or 8 years of PseudObama with exactly 1/16th the charisma gonna give us? Matt Christman said "say hello to President Antisemitic Times Square Elmo" and I don't think that's all that off.

The evangelicals who legit believe Trump was annointed by God and that Obama was the antichrist aren't going anywhere, nor is this nascent far-right populism that's taken the Zoomer generation by storm thanks to (wish I was kidding about this) online video game Nazis. The answer to all these people's economic woes largely caused by disastrous neoliberal policies may not be Fully Automated Luxury Gay Space Communism but it sure as shit isn't Yet Moar Neoliberalism.


In even happier news, it looks like the Supreme Court is gonna let Trump rescind DACA. America, fuck yeah.
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ambientsorrow wrote:
Pretty rubbish, I must say. Certainly not worth the hype behind it. Boring and predictable. A band for 14-22 year olds.

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droneriot
incelgender

Joined: Sat Aug 28, 2004 1:17 pm
Posts: 9068
Location: Spahn Ranch
PostPosted: Fri Nov 15, 2019 6:02 am 
 

Piece by piece Chileans dismantle the decades of crippling and oppressive Chicago Boys libertarianism that American libertarians hailed as one of their big success stories...
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Subrick
Metal freak

Joined: Sun Sep 12, 2010 7:27 pm
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Location: United States
PostPosted: Fri Nov 15, 2019 4:39 pm 
 

https://www.vox.com/2019/11/15/20964909 ... al-verdict

Roger Stone was found guilty of all charges today. He's going to prison for a LONG time (until Trump pardons him, of course).
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Earthcubed wrote:
I'm just perpetually annoyed by Sean William Scott and he's never been in a movie where I wasn't rooting for his head to sever by strange means.

Blacksoul Seraphim Gothic Doom Metal
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darkeningday
xXdArKenIngDayXx

Joined: Mon Aug 23, 2004 1:20 pm
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Location: United States
PostPosted: Fri Nov 15, 2019 6:09 pm 
 

Elizabeth Warren just backtracked on Medicare for All. I'm shocked, shocked I tell you.

Explanation here. Also, here.
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ambientsorrow wrote:
Pretty rubbish, I must say. Certainly not worth the hype behind it. Boring and predictable. A band for 14-22 year olds.


Last edited by darkeningday on Fri Nov 15, 2019 8:51 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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droneriot
incelgender

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PostPosted: Fri Nov 15, 2019 6:14 pm 
 

Honestly, don't care about the primaries. The DNC is like an electoral college except it always ignores every vote for everyone but a DNC candidate. So if Bernie gets 99% in the primaries, the DNC will say Joe Biden won by a landslide. Yes I watch Michael Moore movies, the "nobody voted for Hillary - HILLARY WON!" scene was too funny.
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Face_your_fear_79
Metal newbie

Joined: Sun Sep 21, 2014 8:18 am
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PostPosted: Fri Nov 15, 2019 8:30 pm 
 

Stone was such a easy target.

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insanewayne253
Mallcore Kid

Joined: Tue Mar 29, 2016 4:04 am
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PostPosted: Fri Nov 15, 2019 9:21 pm 
 

To me Warren is making a fair compromise on Medicare for All. Sadly I know several people who don’t want to give up their current insurance and don’t want to pay higher taxes to fund M4A. She acknowledges that M4A is the goal we need to reach and hopefully she’ll have a friendly congress to help enact that policy. She’s not saying M4A won’t happen; it’s a play to the rust belt/center left/suburban voters that are going to be crucial in defeating Trump.

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darkeningday
xXdArKenIngDayXx

Joined: Mon Aug 23, 2004 1:20 pm
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Location: United States
PostPosted: Fri Nov 15, 2019 10:22 pm 
 

Yes because nothing mobilizes the majority of Americans who are either uninsured or paying through the nose for their insurance in order to put pressure on Washington like "possibly slightly lower cost public option." C'mon man, this is just ACA 2.0; there's a small chance one of her two proposed plans will make it through, but both? 0% chance. From the article I linked above:
Carl Beijer wrote:
During the first "legislative push," Republicans would argue that Warren's first bill is a radical communist government power-grab doomed to dysfunction and failure - and single payer activists would be backed into either abandoning the project or insisting that yes, the public-private plan is actually quite reasonable and good. This would
Split the movement along entirely predictable lines that are completely familiar to left organizers - "let's work with Democrats" versus "we must hold the line";
Undermine the commitment and investment of activists who have reluctantly decided to support a bill that is at odds with what they think really needs to happen with health care in the US;
Center Warren's first plan as the "reasonable" compromise, and the second plan as an unnecessarily radical instance of Democrats pressing their advantage; and
Exhaust everyone before picking the second fight.
There is no way the fight for single payer would survive Warrens' plan.

I hate to give Trump credit but his "do-nothing Democracts" line is a rare moment of accuracy.

Also, the rust belt is not "center left." Obama ran on the furthest left platform since FDR and won it in a landslide. The rust belt is into populism not technocracy, which is why Hillary lost it and why Warren will too, especially with crappy compromises like this one.
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ambientsorrow wrote:
Pretty rubbish, I must say. Certainly not worth the hype behind it. Boring and predictable. A band for 14-22 year olds.

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Wilytank
Not a Flying Toy

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PostPosted: Sat Nov 16, 2019 2:11 am 
 

One of the things that doesn't get brought up often here is the candidates foreign policy plans. Seeing as Trump has been hell bent on destroying any positive relationships with reasonable non-authoritarian powers, I want to know how the DNC plans to fix all that.
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BenjaminC81 wrote:
I've got quite an extensive lesbian vampire movie collection at home

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droneriot
incelgender

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PostPosted: Sat Nov 16, 2019 9:57 am 
 

Trump pardons war criminals, he's really a lovely guy. By now I almost feel ashamed for complaining about W, he was a nice, caring and wholesome person in comparison.
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Unorthodox
Metalhead

Joined: Sun Mar 05, 2006 8:08 pm
Posts: 1362
PostPosted: Sun Nov 17, 2019 2:41 am 
 

Earthcubed wrote:
We're talking about two different things. I'm not talking about who gets blamed, I'm talking about who is actually doing the business of running a government during an economic collapse. There is no universe in which Trump doing that leads to better outcomes than any of the Dems currently running.


During an economic downturn, there's very little a president can do without legislative support. If Trump is in charge during a collapse but has meager support in the senate and house, what he could actually do is greatly limited. How the federal reserve carries out monetary policy is more important, and in the case of Jay Powell, I don't think he has done a bad job at that. Nevertheless, if an economic collapse occurs, there's very little anyone could do to reverse it. In the case of the president, at this point, they are sitting ducks because of the general inaction of congress due to its polarization. In the case of the federal reserve, they can't lower interest rates because they're already low.

Unfortunately, most people don't think of the economy this way, which is why if the economy is a sour mess, the president is blamed, regardless of whether he/she is the person to blame. That being said, I would agree with darkeningday to a degree, and would rather have Trump be the head of the country during an economic mess, so that blame is directed on him (whether or not it's his fault or whether he even has the power to rectify the problem).
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Earthcubed
The Great Fearmonger

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PostPosted: Sun Nov 17, 2019 2:08 pm 
 

Within three years of the economic collapse of 2008---which occurred under a Republican president---the same party flipped more House seats than any election in 60 years, picked up a half dozen governors, and picked up nearly two-dozen state legislatures. They did so fairly, with much less favorable gerrymandering conditions than they enjoy now, and without any major foreign interference. It is common for economic downturns to electorally favor the political right, regardless of the cause of the downturn or whose watch it occurred under. For one thing, voters show right wing preferences when they are afraid, pretty consistently, even if they identify as progressives.


You are treating economics as if it's a sort of non-overlapping magisterium. By statutory authority, POTUS has unilateral tariff authority and unilateral war making powers (provided the war doesn't exceed 60 to 90 days), both of which affect the economy. By both statutory and constitutional authority, POTUS can broadly interpret regulatory actions as well as acts of congress, both of which affect the economy. By both statutory and constitutional authority, POTUS can unilaterally levy and lift sanctions against countries, which affects the economy. By instinct, this POTUS habitually refuses to do what Congress requires him to do, regardless of whether or not he formally vetoes it. As an example, I offer his lengthy refusal to levy sanctions on Russia that were duly passed by Congress. And lastly, by instinct, this POTUS blames every problem on either a mythical deep state, China, or brown foreigners.

To say that Trump wouldn't respond to an economic crisis by both a) doubling down on all of his worst instincts and b) using the legal instruments of the state in ways that will make a recession worse is at best naive and at worst mendacious. You're ascribing a level of sober deliberation and respect for legal institutions he hasn't earned.

In a crisis, Trump will lash out in every way. He will tariff every country he thinks is responsible for a stock market collapse. He will publicly blame (and therefore incite violence against) Latinos, blacks, Arabs, whoever, for increasing the deficit and argue they're the reason the government can't afford more economic assistance to Real Amurricans. He will publicly blame (and therefore incite violence against) government workers who allegedly belong to the Deep State, saying the recession is a plot against him. It won't matter if by some miracle the crisis occurs with a competent staff of economic advisors in the White House, because he will fire them over Twitter for any minor perceived slight. More likely, those advisors will just be yes-men too incompetent to administer any possible solutions (e.g. stimulus spending, low-income tax relief) that actually make it through Congress. He will redouble all his arguments about not being able to afford to fund the UN and NATO. He will consider, and most likely some of his advisors will urge him to, taking military action---whether for political reasons, or because "we should just take the oil."



I stand by what I said. There is no universe in which Trump steering the ship of state during an economic crisis is better than a Dem doing so. Any Dem, including Biden or Gabbard or Klobuchar or Bloomberg, would be better at that helm than Trump.
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Earthcubed
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PostPosted: Sun Nov 17, 2019 2:13 pm 
 

And I'm being overly generous by not bringing up his obvious neuro-psychiatric problems, which is the Fool's Mate of this argument.
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iamntbatman wrote:
On Friday I passed an important milestone in my teaching career: a student shat himself

FloristOfVampyrism wrote:
That wasn't meant as a k.o. though, he specifically targeted an area of the cerebellum which, if ruptured, renders you a Jehovah's witness indefinitely

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Unorthodox
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PostPosted: Sun Nov 17, 2019 8:49 pm 
 

Earthcubed wrote:
Within three years of the economic collapse of 2008---which occurred under a Republican president---the same party flipped more House seats than any election in 60 years, picked up a half dozen governors, and picked up nearly two-dozen state legislatures. They did so fairly, with much less favorable gerrymandering conditions than they enjoy now, and without any major foreign interference. It is common for economic downturns to electorally favor the political right, regardless of the cause of the downturn or whose watch it occurred under. For one thing, voters show right wing preferences when they are afraid, pretty consistently, even if they identify as progressives.


Study states in the conclusion:
Spoiler: show
Whether this tendency is manifested directly in terms of increased political conservatism, or more indirectly in terms of increased psychological
conservatism, will depend upon the particulars of the situation,
such as when change toward political conservatism is blocked by
priming or hypocrisy barriers


I have a hard time believing that democrats lost power in the legislative branch and state level due to psychological conservatism triggered by societal woes. An economic downturn unfolding under a republican president, in my view, did just the opposite. Same with how Herbert Hoover couldn't win an election against FDR. Fuck, Jimmy Carter lost against Reagan because of stagflation. Whoever is president under a losing economy loses their position of power, and that truth seems to be politically neutral. Generally, I think there was a large amount of complacency on the left which created low voter turnout during the 2010/2014 mid terms. And, what do you know? Now that Orange Man is president, lefties will get out in droves and actually vote in the mid terms.


Quote:
You are treating economics as if it's a sort of non-overlapping magisterium.


I'm treating economics, particularly economic recessions and slowdowns, as multifaceted incidences that slowly develop over a long period of time, usually throughout many presidential administrations. You can track the slow unfolding of the 2008 housing crisis from Reagan all the way to Bush. You can track the slow unfolding and steady state of the great depression from Coolidge all the way through Harry Truman. You can even track stagflation from the mid 70's all the way through the mid 80's, when Paul Volker drastically increased interest rates to bring a halt to inflation. In all those periods, different presidents came in and out of office, and those presidents that had any long lasting effect on the economy had to have some sort of legislative support to do anything. Furthermore, how those presidents effected the economy created long term consequences that were often not even felt during their reign. Take Bill Clinton's overturn of Glass Steagal, or Obama's passing of Dod Frank. Both those bills had long term consequences that implicated changes in the economy that were felt long after their presidencies.

Quote:
By statutory authority, POTUS has unilateral tariff authority and unilateral war making powers (provided the war doesn't exceed 60 to 90 days), both of which affect the economy. By both statutory and constitutional authority, POTUS can broadly interpret regulatory actions as well as acts of congress, both of which affect the economy. By both statutory and constitutional authority, POTUS can unilaterally levy and lift sanctions against countries, which affects the economy. By instinct, this POTUS habitually refuses to do what Congress requires him to do, regardless of whether or not he formally vetoes it. As an example, I offer his lengthy refusal to levy sanctions on Russia that were duly passed by Congress. And lastly, by instinct, this POTUS blames every problem on either a mythical deep state, China, or brown foreigners.


I won't argue that executive orders and sanctions/tariffs can help/hurt the economy, but what's been proven is how little the current sanctions and tariffs have changed anything for the economy (except if you're a soybean farmer). We still have a robust economy for businesses and wealthy americans (whether or not it is working for everyone is another discussion, but regardless, we're not in a slowdown). Sure, a war could break out, and in that case I wouldn't want Trump to be president, but not because of how the economy is effected, but because of how he has been/would be as the chief commander of the US military.

Quote:
To say that Trump wouldn't respond to an economic crisis by both a) doubling down on all of his worst instincts and b) using the legal instruments of the state in ways that will make a recession worse is at best naive and at worst mendacious. You're ascribing a level of sober deliberation and respect for legal institutions he hasn't earned.

In a crisis, Trump will lash out in every way. He will tariff every country he thinks is responsible for a stock market collapse. He will publicly blame (and therefore incite violence against) Latinos, blacks, Arabs, whoever, for increasing the deficit and argue they're the reason the government can't afford more economic assistance to Real Amurricans. He will publicly blame (and therefore incite violence against) government workers who allegedly belong to the Deep State, saying the recession is a plot against him. It won't matter if by some miracle the crisis occurs with a competent staff of economic advisors in the White House, because he will fire them over Twitter for any minor perceived slight. More likely, those advisors will just be yes-men too incompetent to administer any possible solutions (e.g. stimulus spending, low-income tax relief) that actually make it through Congress. He will redouble all his arguments about not being able to afford to fund the UN and NATO. He will consider, and most likely some of his advisors will urge him to, taking military action---whether for political reasons, or because "we should just take the oil."

I stand by what I said. There is no universe in which Trump steering the ship of state during an economic crisis is better than a Dem doing so. Any Dem, including Biden or Gabbard or Klobuchar or Bloomberg, would be better at that helm than Trump.


Hypothetical Trump responses to a hypothetical recession, oh boy :lol:. Will people be more sold on this message of racial hatred and quasi-Fascism more during an economic collapse? Maybe a bit more, even though a large amount of Americans currently feel like they're in a recession due to wealth inequality. Could he actually get the legislative branch to make discriminatory laws that greatly embolden his racial agenda? Highly questionable, especially now that lefties are voting more. On a broader scope, I think optics are more important than anything. A recession being formed during the Trump administration is better because it makes him look bad, which limits him and the entire POS republican party of being re elected. If it occurred under Biden/Bloomberg/Sanders/Warren/etc, the consequences would be the same, but in the opposite way.
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darkeningday
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PostPosted: Sun Nov 17, 2019 9:13 pm 
 

I think a Sanders presidency could refocus the anger Americans feel at the crash by targeting the people who are actually responsible for it: the 1%. I'd similarly be worried Trump would refocus that anger exclusively towards immigrants, Muslims and/or brown people, but I'm not sure how many that would appeal to beyond his base. Biden or Warren would do nothing, which could be fine but could also go Full NSDAP.

Sadly we simply cannot know what the future holds so I think it's still important we 'vote blue no matter who' in November.
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droneriot
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 18, 2019 4:02 pm 
 

USA recognises West Bank settlements as legal.
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droneriot
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 18, 2019 8:44 pm 
 

Just a bit over a week or so after former US President Obama criticised "woke culture", current German President made a statement of his own:

Quote:
Federal President Frank-Walter Steinmeier has criticized attempts to deliberately scorn "political correctness" in public usage. The political correctness has been "turned so much into a pejorative fight concept that the originally intended goals are willfully veiled," he said at the opening of the German Rectors' Conference in Hamburg, according to speech text. But the freedom of expression is "not threatened by the normal human decency".

"Freedom of expression is not limited by the fact that we apply certain healing taboos in dealing with each other, yes protect," Steinmeier said. "Freedom of expression is not threatened when we pay special attention to particularly vulnerable people - we do that in the family, in the circle of friends, among colleagues - this is not a speech police virtue terror, but an expression of respect and courtesy."

At the same time he turned against complaints about an alleged state opinion censorship and lack of freedom of expression. "Anyone who claims that lies and leads people astray, and whoever believes that falls into the conscious strategy of interested irresponsible forces."

However, an alleged restriction of freedom should be "not a license" for "the spread of reckless insults and for unbridled hatred of all who live differently, think differently, look different, love differently," said Steinmeier. "It is no legitimation for linguistic disinhibition, racism, contempt for women, homophobia, anti-Semitism."

In the face of hatred and hate speech in the political discourse Steinmeier called for a new form of culture of debate. "We have no problem with freedom of expression, we have a problem with our culture of debate," he said. This form of conflict must be "learned anew". The main topic of the two-day meeting of the approximately 250 university rectors was the freedom of science and expression.
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darkeningday
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 18, 2019 9:31 pm 
 

Thanks for that statement, dr. It got completely drowned out in the US news cycle thanks to whatever new stupid shit the impeachment inquiry unearthed. What do you think of FWS?
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droneriot
incelgender

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PostPosted: Thu Nov 21, 2019 7:26 am 
 

I don't respect him because given that pretty much the only purpose of the German President is to give inspirational speeches, he exclusively goes for the low-hanging fruit, all he ever does is criticise the far-right, which is as shooting fish in a barrel as it gets - especially in Germany. As you could see in the quote above (though it was Google translate with some corrections by myself, so not perfect) at least he is quite good at that one thing he does, that one subject he has, says the right things about that one important subject. I just wish he was a tiny little bit more ambitious and tried saying something on more than one single subject, because the way it is, he's a far-right criticising one trick pony. Good at his one trick, but extremely limited on the dozens of other concerns of the people.
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into_the_pit
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PostPosted: Fri Nov 22, 2019 2:16 am 
 

FWS has always been the german career official par excellence, a prime example of german protestant deontologism. his mind is clearly administrative, not creative, let alone inspirational; you could easily tell when he was the foreign secretary some years ago: he administered conflicts and crises instead of solving them.
so, having realized he'd never be the german chancellor, which is where the actual political power is at, he was offered the presidency because he was the inoffensive guy even the conservatives could agree upon (note that the german president is not elected directly by the german people, but effectively a consensual pick by the major political parties), and he accepted not because he wanted to be, but because he felt it was the right thing do to for him - pure raison d'etat.
so in a way the presidency, which has mainly representative and extremely limited constitutional functions, was not the worst option to end his political career - for his political opponents, his own social democratic party, and not least himself. he was able to honorably leave political everyday business with no prospect of returning, way before his party comrades would finally succeed in deconstructing themselves into complete political insignificance. as sad as it may be, from today's perspective he may have lacked imagination and especially true instinct and will for political power just like all german social democrats have in the last decades, but at least he had the administrative skills. today, heiko maas seems to be the best they have to offer. :ah-ha:
so, to answer your question DD, they put the last guy with at least some administrative skills and experience into the office that explicitly bars these. very emblematic move.
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droneriot
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PostPosted: Sun Nov 24, 2019 9:55 am 
 

I think Benjamin Netanyahu is currently demonstrating quite effectively how Donald Trump would treat a defeat. If you doubted that in case of a Democrat win in 2020 it will be labeled a "coup d'etat" by Trump & friends then one of his international best buddies doing it should make you consider the possibility a bit more.
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darkeningday
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 25, 2019 1:52 am 
 

They're literally already calling an impeachment hearing a coup trying to overturn a democratic election (lol) so I don't even know what the script will be by this time next year.
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Pretty rubbish, I must say. Certainly not worth the hype behind it. Boring and predictable. A band for 14-22 year olds.

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