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All Metal
Metal newbie

Joined: Wed Oct 30, 2019 8:42 am
Posts: 39
PostPosted: Thu Jan 30, 2020 7:24 pm 
 

Getting intense - My friend called me and is heavily considering not leaving his house with his wife and new born baby. He lives out in the country, half hour drive to Gatineau, Quebec, Canada which has a metro population as of 2016 of 332,057, which is across the St. Lawrence River to Ottawa (1,323,783 metro population). He's concerned it's going to be millions of deaths at the end of it all and already cleared his local store of rice and lentils and took his long gun course and is planning on hunting to survive - Doomsday scenario.

Is he overly paranoid?

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GTog
Metalhead

Joined: Sun Dec 03, 2006 8:35 pm
Posts: 1139
Location: United States
PostPosted: Thu Jan 30, 2020 8:10 pm 
 

Yes. Fucking hell.
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~Guest 454771
Metalhead

Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2018 8:01 pm
Posts: 527
PostPosted: Thu Jan 30, 2020 8:12 pm 
 

I want to say yes, but I don't want to be made a fool of a month from now when we're all dying in bunkers hiding from the zombie hordes.

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severzhavnost
Veteran

Joined: Sun Oct 12, 2008 10:16 pm
Posts: 2721
Location: Ottawa
PostPosted: Thu Jan 30, 2020 10:18 pm 
 

“is this overly paranoid... asking for a friend.” ;)
Yeah, this will join SARS, MERS, bird flu and zika on the list of pandemics that never really happened.
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MikeyC
Official Greeter of Broken Hills

Joined: Wed Jun 14, 2006 5:16 am
Posts: 13426
Location: Australia
PostPosted: Fri Jan 31, 2020 8:00 am 
 

GTog wrote:
Yes. Fucking hell.

Indeed.

I'm sure it's a bad virus, but for regular Joe's to go all Doomsday Preppers because of a Chinese virus seems a bit much.
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gasmask_colostomy
Metalhead

Joined: Thu May 27, 2010 5:38 am
Posts: 1033
Location: Behind the wall of fire v.2
PostPosted: Fri Jan 31, 2020 10:50 am 
 

I live in China, in Hefei city, about 400 kilometres East of Wuhan, where the virus started. In terms of the spread of the virus, everything possible has been done to contain people, including making Wuhan and the whole province of Hubei (of which it is capital city) a no-go zone. So, we know the disease was transferred before that shutdown, but we should see diminishing cases shortly after the peak incubation period - around 2 weeks from now. Even in other cities across China, such as where I am, people are staying out of contact as much as possible to prevent the spread. My company was supposed to go back to work tomorrow after Spring Festival holiday, but we've been told not to come in for 10 days, just to stop the spread. Everything possible is being done to stop further contamination, while there are fairly few cases abroad as of now.

Another point to consider is why the coronavirus has been declared an emergency. It's highly contagious, which seems like a terrible thing, but it's not all that deadly if you catch it. The illness has been compared to pneumonia, and it's mostly killed old people (60+) and those with lung conditions. The obvious implication is not that we're all going to die, but that it would be a massive burden on healthcare systems if a lot of people caught the virus, while the measures taken in China have pretty much frozen all economic activity for now, which can't continue for long.

Your friend shouldn't panic, but he needs to make sure his baby doesn't go to contaminated areas - no hospitals, train stations, airports. If there are reported cases in his region, he could consider buying some extra food and cancelling unnecessary trips (that's what we're doing here), but he doesn't need to go off the grid. If he and his wife are healthy, sensible adults, they will be fine. Just consider the risk of contagion for the baby.

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Empyreal
The Final Frontier

Joined: Thu Nov 30, 2006 6:58 pm
Posts: 28082
Location: Where the dead rule the night
PostPosted: Fri Jan 31, 2020 10:57 am 
 

It's obviously deadly and all, but this happens every few years with viruses - bird flu, ebola a few years ago, etc. It will be tragic but ultimately it will go away.
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GuntherTheUndying
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Joined: Mon Apr 24, 2006 4:36 pm
Posts: 2798
Location: United States
PostPosted: Fri Jan 31, 2020 11:30 am 
 

SARS, West Nile, Bird Flu, Swine Flu, Ebola - these things blow over eventually. Coronavirus will do the same. New virus, same shit.
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l Lunaris l
Metal newbie

Joined: Wed Dec 04, 2019 6:14 pm
Posts: 68
Location: United States
PostPosted: Fri Jan 31, 2020 12:10 pm 
 

Empyreal wrote:
It's obviously deadly and all, but this happens every few years with viruses - bird flu, ebola a few years ago, etc. It will be tragic but ultimately it will go away.


Exactly. This isn't some 'next big plague' kind of deal like the internet seems to think it is, it's a pretty regular occurrence. I've also seen some weird misinformation floating around about how deadly it is, the kind of thing where some people have the impression that if you get it you have don't have much chance of surviving.

Your comparisons to bird flu and ebola are very big exaggerations honestly. Look at the fatality rates for both of those - 90% and 60% respectively. Best I can tell, the coronavirus has a fatality rate of around 2-7%, loosely? Could be wrong though, but that's what I've seen so far. Those are all still estimates but I doubt it will end being even close to as deadly as either of those.

Now, that's still a relatively scary number, and it is still a good reason to be cautious, especially for young children and the elderly; but it certainly is not a super virus.

All the deaths are really tragic though. I hope the attempts to contain it are successful.
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DeadKid
Metal newbie

Joined: Mon Jan 03, 2011 8:51 am
Posts: 142
Location: New Zealand
PostPosted: Fri Jan 31, 2020 11:31 pm 
 

My understanding is that someone in Canada is more likely to die from regular influenza.

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Xenophon
Metalhead

Joined: Wed Aug 13, 2014 12:07 am
Posts: 1159
Location: United States
PostPosted: Sat Feb 01, 2020 1:04 am 
 

It's a sad situation for a lot of people in East Asia, but someone in Canada shouldn't be too worried. With SARS and Ebola there were only a super small number of deaths in North America, right, like a number I could probably count on one hand? If somehow this does become a true pandemic, I'm sure your friend will have plenty of warning.

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Morrigan
Crone of War

Joined: Sat Aug 10, 2002 7:27 am
Posts: 9998
Location: Canada
PostPosted: Sat Feb 01, 2020 3:25 am 
 

Your friend is a massive idiot.
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nightbreaker33
Metal newbie

Joined: Mon Jan 25, 2016 11:20 am
Posts: 341
PostPosted: Sun Feb 02, 2020 8:19 am 
 

When I first heard of the name I thought it was some kind of joke targeting toxic people. But then I've heard of it on the news. Very serious epidemic. Asia is unlucky all those factories ruin people's health. First the factory explosion back in 2011 now this.

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Metal_On_The_Ascendant
Metalhead

Joined: Fri May 22, 2015 6:38 am
Posts: 571
PostPosted: Sun Feb 02, 2020 8:53 am 
 

Your "friend" needs to chill out
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Earthcubed
The Great Fearmonger

Joined: Sun Nov 07, 2004 3:44 am
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Location: Ubique
PostPosted: Sun Feb 02, 2020 12:51 pm 
 

If the numbers China is tabulating are accurate, nCoV has a fatality rate between 20 and 30 times that of influenza...which in this case, means between 2% and 3%. In other words, a survival rate between 97% to 98%. And that assumes that every case of nCoV is being recorded, which is probably not what's happening; there are quite likely thousands of other people who have it but are only moderately ill and aren't bothering to go to the doctor or hospital because it just feels like the normal flu to them. If I remember correctly similar things happened with SARS, where the early fatality estimates were much higher than reality because they were under-counting how many people had it.
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~Guest 454771
Metalhead

Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2018 8:01 pm
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PostPosted: Sun Feb 02, 2020 5:27 pm 
 

:grr: That's all very logical Earthcubed, but I've already put a down payment on this apocalypse plague bunker and it's non-refundable! :grr:

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severzhavnost
Veteran

Joined: Sun Oct 12, 2008 10:16 pm
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Location: Ottawa
PostPosted: Mon Feb 03, 2020 10:44 pm 
 

Residents of a remote (ish) island group in Indonesia unhappy that their islands get stuck as a corona virus quarantine zone:
https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-as ... -put-under
I agree with them. Indonesia has 1,452 islands that are so unknown, they don’t even have official names. There’s no reason to use an inhabited place for quarantine.
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Yahko
Metal newbie

Joined: Tue Apr 12, 2005 4:27 pm
Posts: 261
Location: Canada
PostPosted: Mon Feb 03, 2020 11:52 pm 
 

There are a few cases in Canada, not a single one of them is in Quebec. He will be fine. But people like to feel scared nowadays.
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Unorthodox
Metalhead

Joined: Sun Mar 05, 2006 8:08 pm
Posts: 1924
PostPosted: Tue Feb 04, 2020 6:11 am 
 

My cousin just made it out of Shanghai and is heading back to the states because of what's going on. Literally got denied a transfer flight to the Philippines because he was in China two weeks prior. I don't think this is going to be a big deal, but if it is I got plenty of canned food in my pantry.
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NorseDave
Metal newbie

Joined: Sat May 20, 2006 11:39 am
Posts: 72
Location: Italy
PostPosted: Fri Feb 21, 2020 1:52 pm 
 

GuntherTheUndying wrote:
SARS, West Nile, Bird Flu, Swine Flu, Ebola - these things blow over eventually. Coronavirus will do the same. New virus, same shit.


At first, I used to think the same when I've heard about it, but now I'm changing my thoughts. Here in Italy just today we had the first cases of secondary positive people affected by Coronavirus and in just few hours the number increased from three to 16! Some villages in Lombardy are shut down, and it seems that in the next days/weeks the situation is going to get worse! A famous and praised italian virologist it's weeks that is saying that a complete Quarantine for EVERYBODY who is traveling from China to Italy is necessary, but the politicians never listened to him. Let's see what will happens, maybe (hopefully) everything is going to be better, but for sure this case is not the same as the forementioned viruses. Coronavirus is way worse!

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droneriot
incelgender

Joined: Sat Aug 28, 2004 1:17 pm
Posts: 10603
Location: Spahn Ranch
PostPosted: Fri Feb 21, 2020 1:55 pm 
 

NorseDave wrote:
Coronavirus is way worse!

Yeah. I still agree with Gunther in principle that this isn't some kind of Spanish flu type of global calamity, but it's definitely one of the nastier strains in recent history.
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l Lunaris l
Metal newbie

Joined: Wed Dec 04, 2019 6:14 pm
Posts: 68
Location: United States
PostPosted: Fri Feb 21, 2020 2:17 pm 
 

NorseDave wrote:
GuntherTheUndying wrote:
SARS, West Nile, Bird Flu, Swine Flu, Ebola - these things blow over eventually. Coronavirus will do the same. New virus, same shit.


At first, I used to think the same when I've heard about it, but now I'm changing my thoughts. Here in Italy just today we had the first cases of secondary positive people affected by Coronavirus and in just few hours the number increased from three to 16! Some villages in Lombardy are shut down, and it seems that in the next days/weeks the situation is going to get worse! A famous and praised italian virologist it's weeks that is saying that a complete Quarantine for EVERYBODY who is traveling from China to Italy is necessary, but the politicians never listened to him. Let's see what will happens, maybe (hopefully) everything is going to be better, but for sure this case is not the same as the forementioned viruses. Coronavirus is way worse!


Way worse? Way worse in what way? Is it worse because it's closer to you? Not gonna argue that it's not a problem, but saying it's worse than ebola and the bird flu is just completely false and stupid. It is SO much less deadly than those diseases you're comparing it to. Have you actually looked into it, or are you just following the internet hysteria?

Coronavirus isn't special in and of itself. It might be spreading fast but it is nowhere near as deadly and scary as the diseases you just said it is worse than.
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NorseDave
Metal newbie

Joined: Sat May 20, 2006 11:39 am
Posts: 72
Location: Italy
PostPosted: Fri Feb 21, 2020 2:22 pm 
 

l Lunaris l wrote:
NorseDave wrote:
GuntherTheUndying wrote:
SARS, West Nile, Bird Flu, Swine Flu, Ebola - these things blow over eventually. Coronavirus will do the same. New virus, same shit.


At first, I used to think the same when I've heard about it, but now I'm changing my thoughts. Here in Italy just today we had the first cases of secondary positive people affected by Coronavirus and in just few hours the number increased from three to 16! Some villages in Lombardy are shut down, and it seems that in the next days/weeks the situation is going to get worse! A famous and praised italian virologist it's weeks that is saying that a complete Quarantine for EVERYBODY who is traveling from China to Italy is necessary, but the politicians never listened to him. Let's see what will happens, maybe (hopefully) everything is going to be better, but for sure this case is not the same as the forementioned viruses. Coronavirus is way worse!


Way worse? Way worse in what way? Is it worse because it's closer to you? Not gonna argue that it's not a problem, but saying it's worse than ebola and the bird flu is just completely false and stupid. It is SO much less deadly than those diseases you're comparing it to. Have you actually looked into it, or are you just following the internet hysteria?

Coronavirus isn't special in and of itself. It might be spreading fast but it is nowhere near as deadly and scary as the diseases you just said it is worse than.


For sure is much more contagious (and many virologists are saying that, not me) than such other viruses, and even if it's less deadly (for now), the high ease of transmission makes Coronavirus worse than other viruses.

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l Lunaris l
Metal newbie

Joined: Wed Dec 04, 2019 6:14 pm
Posts: 68
Location: United States
PostPosted: Fri Feb 21, 2020 4:30 pm 
 

NorseDave wrote:
For sure is much more contagious (and many virologists are saying that, not me) than such other viruses, and even if it's less deadly (for now), the high ease of transmission makes Coronavirus worse than other viruses.


The high ease of transmission makes it effect more people, yes, and that is a problem, but it's just not comparable to the others mentioned. If I had to choose one of those viruses to make its way into my area, I would choose Coronavirus no question. (That is, compared to the bird flu and ebola. I don't know a ton about the others mentioned here.) I think you're underestimating just how much less deadly this disease is.

It's bad, it's a problem, any amount of death is tragic... But to call it worse is absurd.
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Bingewolf
Metalhead

Joined: Mon Sep 18, 2017 9:59 pm
Posts: 648
Location: United States
PostPosted: Fri Feb 21, 2020 4:51 pm 
 

Coronavirus is obviously bad and dangerous if you contract it.... However, MANY more people are at risk of dying from the good ol' American flu than coronavirus.

This is a product of the fear-mongering news cycle we deal with these days. "This is a terrible disease coming from China, BEWARE!" As has been said above, I look at this in the same way as bird/swine flu, SARS, etc. Sure, take precautions not to get sick - but to act like this is the most dangerous thing we face right now is definitely overreacting.

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gasmask_colostomy
Metalhead

Joined: Thu May 27, 2010 5:38 am
Posts: 1033
Location: Behind the wall of fire v.2
PostPosted: Sat Feb 22, 2020 8:06 am 
 

It's been politicized to a certain degree, which is annoying. I don't think we had that so much with the other diseases mentioned above.
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Bingewolf
Metalhead

Joined: Mon Sep 18, 2017 9:59 pm
Posts: 648
Location: United States
PostPosted: Sun Feb 23, 2020 9:54 pm 
 

It is being reported that Italy is facing the largest outbreak outside of Asia (100+) cases and I want to quote the reporting from NPR tonight: "it appears that fear is spreading much faster than the virus."

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Morn Of Solace
Metalhead

Joined: Tue Apr 01, 2014 2:19 am
Posts: 1829
PostPosted: Mon Feb 24, 2020 11:10 am 
 

Bingewolf wrote:
It is being reported that Italy is facing the largest outbreak outside of Asia (100+) cases and I want to quote the reporting from NPR tonight: "it appears that fear is spreading much faster than the virus."


Ten towns in the south of Milan have been quarantined for fifteen days, and even the company where i work is closed for a week.

Those sudden emergency safety measures triggered an initial general scare and some supermakets were emptied of canned goods, pasta and such.
However the situation seems to be calmer now, at least where i live.. i'll have to wait to see how the situation goes, but for now i am tranquil but cautious

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Lord_Jotun
Veteran

Joined: Sat Sep 13, 2003 5:02 pm
Posts: 2678
Location: Italy
PostPosted: Mon Feb 24, 2020 11:49 am 
 

I'm much more worried about people losing their shit than the virus itself right now. Between idiotic apocalyptic scares (including the ongoing grocery store raiding), fake news and assholes immediately rushing to take advantage of the situation through various scams, the old cliché about people being the worst disease rings ever so true. Disgusting.
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oneyoudontknow
Cum insantientibus furere necesse est.

Joined: Sun May 21, 2006 6:25 pm
Posts: 5177
Location: Germany
PostPosted: Mon Feb 24, 2020 3:49 pm 
 

droneriot wrote:
NorseDave wrote:
Coronavirus is way worse!

Yeah. I still agree with Gunther in principle that this isn't some kind of Spanish flu type of global calamity, but it's definitely one of the nastier strains in recent history.

and I wonder how our competent political class will deal with a more serious outbreak here in Germany; should such a thing occur. And how the "leaders" in the economy will have a say in this regard. Could be rather amusing.
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droneriot
incelgender

Joined: Sat Aug 28, 2004 1:17 pm
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Location: Spahn Ranch
PostPosted: Wed Feb 26, 2020 2:12 pm 
 

In the long run I think what will cause us a lot more problems is another parasitic form of life running amok in East Africa at the moment.
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severzhavnost
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Joined: Sun Oct 12, 2008 10:16 pm
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Location: Ottawa
PostPosted: Wed Feb 26, 2020 4:09 pm 
 

Locusts are not parasites. They also probably taste better than the corona virus.
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droneriot
incelgender

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Location: Spahn Ranch
PostPosted: Wed Feb 26, 2020 4:22 pm 
 

They didn't evolve as such, same as rats and pigeons, but entered into a parasitic relationship with humans once the latter got their civilisation thing going.
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severzhavnost
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Location: Ottawa
PostPosted: Wed Feb 26, 2020 5:06 pm 
 

:lol: Can’t believe I actually got into a debate about this! But no, locusts will be fine long after we are extinct. Their survival does not depend on another species, therefore, not a parasite.
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droneriot
incelgender

Joined: Sat Aug 28, 2004 1:17 pm
Posts: 10603
Location: Spahn Ranch
PostPosted: Wed Feb 26, 2020 5:19 pm 
 

Well the individual locusts aren't dependent on us for our survival, sure, but the cloud-sized swarms as a collective probably are. You're not wrong in any way about the individual animals themselves, but the phenomenon of these giant clouds is indeed dependent on us. So if we were gone as a species, there'd still be locusts, but country-sized locust swarms likely wouldn't be around anymore.
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Oxenkiller
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Joined: Sat Feb 09, 2008 3:42 am
Posts: 2687
Location: United States of America
PostPosted: Wed Feb 26, 2020 8:49 pm 
 

As mentioned, I am more concerned about the reaction to the virus than the virus itself. There are precautions everyone can take to prevent catching any pretty much any virus, and there are flu viruses and cold viruses going around right now that are making everyone just as sick as the coronoavirus, but you aren't hearing about those. What I am hearing, from people I work with, is a lot of stuff like "Those minorities coming into the country because of our liberal open border policy are spreading the virus, along with a lot of other infectious diseases." Basic paranoid xenophobic shit, in other words. And you know some of those same people are gonna just keep feeding the hysteria, and maybe even start clamoring for some kind of Gestapo-style action against certain ethnic groups, too.

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Lord_Jotun
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Joined: Sat Sep 13, 2003 5:02 pm
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Location: Italy
PostPosted: Thu Feb 27, 2020 6:12 am 
 

Timeline of people's reactions around here:

- omg, a plague? Why is the government doing nothing to contain it???
- *to curb the contagion, schools are closed for a week, a few towns quarantined, events such as concerts and sports match are canceled for the time being*
- OH GOD SEE ITS THE END OF THE WORLD THEY'RE CLOSING DOWN EVERYTHING WE'RE DOOMED!!!! *supermarkets are raided*
- *less and less new cases are reported, most likely thanks to the aforementioned countermeasures*
- See? It was just another flu, no need to spread so much fear. I'm telling you, there's probably no virus and no contagion; it's all a plot to curb our economy and freedom!


So yeah, stupidity remains the worst virus by far.
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NorseDave
Metal newbie

Joined: Sat May 20, 2006 11:39 am
Posts: 72
Location: Italy
PostPosted: Thu Feb 27, 2020 4:44 pm 
 

Lord_Jotun wrote:
Timeline of people's reactions around here:

- omg, a plague? Why is the government doing nothing to contain it???
- *to curb the contagion, schools are closed for a week, a few towns quarantined, events such as concerts and sports match are canceled for the time being*
- OH GOD SEE ITS THE END OF THE WORLD THEY'RE CLOSING DOWN EVERYTHING WE'RE DOOMED!!!! *supermarkets are raided*
- *less and less new cases are reported, most likely thanks to the aforementioned countermeasures*
- See? It was just another flu, no need to spread so much fear. I'm telling you, there's probably no virus and no contagion; it's all a plot to curb our economy and freedom!


So yeah, stupidity remains the worst virus by far.


I agree with you, but I still think that the spreading of the virus will be more dangerous (and not only in terms of death rate) than a "normal" influence. Minimizing the situation is stupid as overreacting.

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Earthcubed
The Great Fearmonger

Joined: Sun Nov 07, 2004 3:44 am
Posts: 3921
Location: Ubique
PostPosted: Thu Feb 27, 2020 10:32 pm 
 

An actual sitting GOP senator is insinuating nCoV is a Chinese bioweapon because he read about operations INFEKTION and VORWÄRTS II and thought how cool it would be if he did that too. Prominent GOP media hucksters are claiming nCoV is a deep state conspiracy to bring down Trump because of course they are.

We really are living in the worst timeline.
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droneriot
incelgender

Joined: Sat Aug 28, 2004 1:17 pm
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PostPosted: Thu Feb 27, 2020 10:46 pm 
 

Yeah and it's actually called Coronervirus and it's punishment for decadence.
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